Assessment
The Vols are big but not as talented as Michigan (they say).
The Vols are deep but not as talented as Michigan (they say).
Rick Barnes is a really good coach.
Key stats: Rebounding, points, opposition points, steals, and blocks are just about even.
Tennessee does have 11 losses to Michigan's 3 and they are only a 6 seed, but they are #11 at KenPom and they have played a tough schedule.
Stats say Tennessee is not a great 3-shooting team.
Keys to the Game for Michigan
Stay out of foul trouble.
Hit 3's.
Rebounds and points from Morez Johnson.
Also
Points from Mara, Cadeau, and Burnett.
Slashing and steals from the bench (Gayle).
Lendenborg and McKenney, keep it up from 3.
Mara, prove the last game was a fluke. Post, rebound, and pass as capable.
We'll see what happens, but going in this is a really worrisome game. It is all just too easy. Why, at every turn, do all the people who are paid to predict choose Michigan.
Borzello's prediction: Michigan, 80-68
Medcalf's prediction: Michigan, 85-69
That is the latest from a little outfit called ESPN. I don't know who these people are, but they are trumpeting the same tune as the rest. Tennessee's roster is tall, heavy, and deep. If I were Rick Barnes, and I am certainly not, I would tell every single big they are going in for short stretches of bully ball. Everyone should have three or four fouls midway through the fourth quarter; your job is to debilitate Mara, Lendenborg, and Johnson. FWIW, Dusty May could tell Cheddar the same.
If Tennessee's bigs can hold their own Tennessee can win. Or, if any of three Michigan frontcourt starters get into foul trouble, Tennessee might win. That is the question in this game: Is Michigan's frontcourt unbeatable? If Tennessee cannot do it with their roster the answer has to be yes.
The same virtually unanimous predictions have preceded every Michigan tournament game so far and they have been right.
It is fascinating that per the announcer Dusty May planned for an Alabama game too fast for Mara. And Alabama's Oats doubles stopped him completely. Part of it confirms that the internet pundits don't know a damn thing. Tennessee is the #1 team in offensive rebounding but they aren't good at scoring on those rebounds? What does that mean?
When I look at Tennessee's roster I see size and experience, and some big recruits too. Actually, it goes even farther into incredulity. Michigan just played Alabama; who is Amari Allen? It looks like Arkansas (Calipari) should have won the NCAA Tournament a week ago. Nate Ament at #14 and the Vols transfer from Maryland (Gillespie) on there too.
Michigan is not the only team that spends. But they almost all still say Michigan can't be beat.
The team, the team, the team.
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