I want Michigan to win. I think they will, and I'll explain why.
Watching and actually paying attention to the whole Washington-Texas game was tedious but worth it. This perspective is from someone used to watching the Big Ten.
I never really noticed whether teams huddle or not and Washington did it sometimes. What was weird was no offensive motion or defensive stunting or moving around at all. No one ran downfield or to a tackle to help a teammate off the ground. There was the same kind of self congratulating after a play that everyone does, but it was not for and including the rest of the team. It wasn't the same kind of energy. It was different.
With a few exceptions, Michael Penix had all day to pass; I don't know why Texas wasn't doing anything on defense to stop him and many quarterbacks will prosper in such a situation. Some or quite a few of the throws were perfect, the kind a defense will dare an opponent to complete. The receivers? Ohio State's are better and running backs and tight ends--variation--were nonexistent Texas dbs seemed to not play the ball and just crash into the receivers. Washington has very little in the running game (i.e., pass heavy) and Dillon Johnson injured compounds that (more below).
On defense, Washington allowed Texas to gash them in running and to then complete long, easy passes in the second half. QB Ewers was stationary and with a couple of exceptions (e.g., the game's last play) Washington did nothing. The running backs had not just holes, but open space. Tackling was below that of teams such as Penn State or Iowa. The dbs? They didn't stop Texas when they had to pass.
Michigan probably found a left-handed quarterback to practice against. Michigan should be able to get to Penix and rattle him. Some of the passes may lead to interceptions or fumbles. Michigan will go after the ball, the receivers, and especially Penix. RB Johnson, count him out regardless of what they say and there was no backup when it mattered.
In summary, they'll complete (quite) a few passes but I think Michigan's D will control or stifle Penix and the Washington passing attack; that is the jugular. They are the Joe Moore Award winners with only 11 sacks and it will not be easy but the pass rush, the whole d-line, the experienced linebackers, and the athletic, ball-hawking dbs will be too much. They'll find a way. No one has stopped them so far this longest-possible season.
On offense, Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards will have field days. The rest of the o-line and the tight ends and Max Bredeson (who has finally made a name for himself) will conspire to do even better than with Zac Zinter. We've seen it before: Why do anything else when you don't have to? Passing will do just enough and people will question or criticize it.
Texas had some huge players, mostly in the bench area, or maybe it was the too tight, poorly fitting uniforms. Michigan is way bigger and more physical than Washington and seemingly Texas too.
Things like this stick in your brain. What I remember most about the game is Dillon Johnson struggling in extreme pain to walk off the field. I and millions of others also saw him doing the same the same thing on the sideline. It was cruel, stupid, and sadistic to put him back in for every meaningless carry at the end.
Then there was the ostentatious, crazy multiple lateral failed pass. Ditto the one to your franchise quarterback, Penix seemed to be taking it really easy. Kalen DeBoer, who I had seen earlier smiling and he seemed like an all-around good guy, looked more like a sleep-deprived Ryan Day on the warpath for someone to yell at. Coach showed he is prone to bad decisions.
To summarize again, Washington showed an awful lot of swagger that may not be there after the championship game against Michigan. I think the game will be like the B1G Championship with Iowa--deal with their good defense, in this case Washington's passing attack--and the game may go on but it will be decided right from the start. Michigan did that all year.
There is a piece below that talks about Michigan's motivation. I think they're going to show up for the game like the 1985-86 Michigan basketball team in the great book about Bobby Knight, A Season on the Brink by John Feinstein. In the climax of the book the team led by Roy Tarpley, Richard Rellford, Gary Grant and others took control from the second they ran onto the floor. They had fire in their eyes. At that point, for the terror-like season for the Hoosiers (Steve Alford especially) forced to ride on that tiny plane with the devil himself, the Big Ten championship was lost.
I remember Michael Penix from the B1G. Poor Tom Allen, the optimist, who was fired.
If I am a little riled up, you can imagine what it feels like for the football team.
Michigan 38 Washington 17.
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