History dictates that I make a prediction. It is bizarre that Michigan football is still playing and for a national championship when the whole athletic department and system is a downer. But I have followed the team and feel obliged to put it down if for no other reason than posterity.
At this moment (Saturday afternoon) Penn State is losing to Ole Miss. Ohio State already lost to Missouri. At the same time Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland, teams Michigan beat handily, won bowl games. The games do have meaning, or are at least worthwhile, but it shows how meaningless they are in the final rankings.
Does 5-star automatically mean prima donna? That is what will be decided. Alabama is stacked; supposedly their whole secondary is entering the NFL. They have been at or near the top in recruiting for a decade. But so has Ohio State, and Georgia is not in the playoff this year either.
Jim Harbaugh is an iconoclast, or at least an individualist. He has to do it his way and that is who this Michigan team is. The whole Michigan vs. the world mantra is a perfect storm of collective motivation. Too bad the team's future--coach(es) and roster--hinges on this one game.
Win or lose, Michigan fans will then be treated to a long offseason (sans basketball) and its version of the opt out. There is a lot riding on it--sadness or euphoria for at least one more week.
It is an extremely difficult game to predict. I have to go with the betting line--Michigan by 1.5 points, which borders on cowardice in terms of logic. Michigan will win. It might be because of pressure on Jalen Milroe; it could be because of a few long, unstoppable drives led by Corum and McCarthy. All season I have been asking myself why Michigan has almost always led and nobody could catch up and the reason is they adapt. Primarily, they have their way, but they adapt until they get there. This one is about adapting to win, not destroy.* A very good team with extra motivation > a very good team. I cannot predict the score. It is unlikely Michigan will run up and down the field as they did against Ohio State and Penn State, but you never know. It is likely under Harbaugh's onfileld direction that Michigan will capitalize on its opportunities and make fewer mistakes than Alabama. But really, who knows? Nick Saban is a an even more accomplished coach. This year, with all its instability, Michigan has more riding on it and that may show-up in a positive way.
Of course it could be the complete opposite.
Key players for Michigan: J.J. McCarthy and Donovan Edwards (both 5-star recruits). Blake Corum will get his--yards or offensive balance--regardless. On defense, turnovers (Sainristil and Johnson) will be key for both teams. The game is unlikely to be decided by one or two points but it will be close by virtue of each team's explosiveness.
P.S. McCarthy's "clunker" of a game (3 interceptions against Bowling Green) was while Harbaugh was watching on TV.
Update: Interestingly, Brian on MgoBlog made two strong recommendations in his Rose Bowl preview: Michigan quarterbacks run 15 times and pressure instead of spying Milroe. These would be bold, unprecedented adaptations.
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