Wednesday, August 21, 2019

2019 Preview and Prediction

The football season hasn't started yet and lots of people are looking toward the end.  It seems Michigan's talent and depth is very strong; on the other hand, no imminent power seems to exist.

But it is way too soon, especially in terms of the defending champion Ohio State.

I still have to look it up, Middle Tennessee.  Army will be a fine exhibition and tough but not difficult opponent.

Wisconsin, Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois.  Wisconsin too has a weird schedule with two easy ones, a week off, and then the Big Ten.  Wisconsin in Madison is always a treat, QB- and talent-less or not.  It will be a test to see what they have got but Michigan should be favored by at least a touchdown.  Then there is another week off--Rutgers is not even a rival--at home.  People say Iowa is annually good and for the first time in a while we will see.  When I have seen QB Stanley he has been nowhere near a quarterback in terms of arm, run, or intangibles, unlike Shea.  That is going to be a really fun game because by that time Michigan's WRs will be on display on the fast turf at home.  I don't care about Gattis, DPJ, Nico, and Tarik can just plain do it, maybe a few others too, and the line and QBs are on board.  Then, if you want an easy road game, there is Illinois, Brandon Peters or not.

Pending a mental fall-apart at Wisconsin, Michigan should be 6-0.

Then there is Penn State at home.  It will be a good time to catch up on what is going on in Happy Valley.  They seem to have a lot of attrition, and the finally-able-to-play senior quarterback bolting to the former offensive coordinator in the Deep South does not look good.  They're schedule looks harder than Michigan's; actually, it doesn't, it just looks as though Penn State could be 4-2, or worse or  the slim hope better.  Then they play Michigan State and that is certain to be another tough, dirty game.  Everything seems to be a drama but the huge fanbase always has hope.  Who will be left?  What will it hold for a whiteout game at night?

It is good drama.  Bring on 'ol Purple Face.  Both teams could be undefeated at this point--except they have to play Georgia and USC--and Brian Kelly really has it rolling at Notre Dame.  Once he stopped job hopping Notre Dame started raking in top recruiting classes every year and they have been in the Top 10 or higher.  Michigan is at home and that is a huge plus.

My God, it is not over or even close.  Another week off and then it is an easy bus trip to East Lansing.  Michigan State should be something like 1-8 by now but they will still come out stomping with cleats.  Dantonio's scowl will be "landscaped" into the playing field in concrete at the still beautiful agricultural school.  Let's hope Michigan's bench and unpublished depth chart shows up by now and they can inflict some damage too.  They have some good defensive ends--remember the great Malik McDowell could not hold up the defense himself--and by now Lewerke will either be an all-American or in the hospital.  It doesn't even work on Google anymore---I tried searching for former Michigan State DT sued, arrested, or in prison and the list is too long.  It is a lesson in survival like no other.  Finally, when the crowbar him away he will have lost his eyesight too.  His post-humus autobiography will be called Blind Survival.

Dylan McCaffrey has been a good soldier, no complaints and a rarity in this day and age.  Here's hoping he runs for 200 against Sparty.  Hassan Haskins too.

We are cruising along undefeated at this point.  Bloomington, Indiana is pretty, especially if it is at night.  It is just a tune-up.  A few players are out---they are important players who were counted on for the stretch run; it happens and at that age there is time to either heal or get out.  Overall, the team is healthy and playing well.

There will be one loss on the season.  They will finish 11-1.  As Big Ten East Champions they will be another game in Indianapolis.

Overall, I think Michigan will win a lot of games this year because they have the best quarterback and the rest of the talent on offense is comparable or better than anyone else in the league.  On defense the team is a bit unproven, but Michigan has the depth and experience to persevere there too.

EDIT and FINAL, FINAL prediction.

Bizarre Link.

You may or may not be able to read it; it comes and goes.  It says Penn State is going to finish in a tie for third place in the Big Ten East because, despite top 5 recruiting classes for several years, too much attrition.  This was happy news for Michigan:  Ohio State would tie for third.  The reasoning is a new coach and QB (Justin Fields).

Then comes Michigan.  Blah, blah, blah.

Someone forgot about...  The champion is going to be Michigan State.  Their defense will be very good.  Their defensive ends are proven and apparently they have others also; offensively, Lewerke is nothing compared to Patterson.  The notion of Mark Dantonio always fielding a great team after a crummy one is just that, fiction.

Michigan may very well lose several games.  11-1 means beating either Notre Dame or Ohio State as well as everyone else.  That will only be accomplished if several freshman or did not play players step up.

The defensive line lost five players in Winovich, Bary, Mone, Marshall, and Soloman; Hinton, Smith, and perhaps Vilain are going to have to play.  In the secondary, someone among Gemon Green, Kelly-Powell, Vincent Gray, or Dax Hill will be needed.  Coach Nua is unknown compared to his longtime predecessor.  The first test for the defensive line will come against Wisconsin in the third game of the season.

Similarly, the offensive line and running attack may not be challenged until the game in Madison.  We'll get an early look-see, but if these units are not there at the latter part of the season, and against Michigan State and Penn State, the team will not be in at the end.

It looks like the depth is there at Michigan.  Elsewhere?  I really have no idea.  Put another way, the Michigan roster looks good, but how it will look at the end of the season AND how everyone else's looks is another question.

Can Don Brown mold the defense into a top unit?  Will it hold up if the "new" offense scores a lot of points?  Remember, Brown and the defense flopped big time at the end of last season.  He is no longer infallible.

Bloggers are supposed to make predictions.  If Michigan improves by the end of the season and everyone else has bigger problems, 11-1.


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