This is what makes me want to defer. They’re all .500! They are also unanimous, so like odds flipping a coin, .5 times .5, probably they’re not all tails.
Penn State and Michigan are both programs that were gutted, but Michigan did not go through anything nearly as bad. James Franklin has not been the easiest guy to like, maybe because of the Vanderbilt exit and all (including the rape case). But that too is in the past. Penn State joined the Big Ten because it was all just too good not to. It is great that they are back and football will always be a part of it.
Penn State enrollment, 95,973; stadium capacity, 107,282. Michigan dodged a bullet by avoiding a night game. It is still a “white out” and senior day. The Nittany Lions have not lost at home this year (i.e., they played Ohio State in Columbus).
Two things need to happen for next week's Michigan-Ohio State game to be the Big Ten East championship game in Jim Harbaugh's first season: Ohio State has to beat Michigan State on Saturday, and Michigan needs to win in Happy Valley. Michigan has been the better team than Penn State this season, but this is still a dangerous game for the Wolverines, who have not won in Beaver Stadium since 2006. Penn State is 7-3 overall but 6-0 at home, beating three Big Ten opponents by a total score of 96-10. Of course, those three opponents were Rutgers, Indiana and Illinois. Michigan represents quite a step up, with a defense that has mostly been outstanding -- except for defending the run last week in the tight win at Indiana -- and an offense that has gotten improvement out of QB Jake Rudock. After Jordan Howard's success running against Michigan last week, it will be interesting to see what star Penn State freshman Saquon Barkley can do (he ran for 194 yards in the loss to Ohio State) against the Wolverines. Michigan's defense should rebound enough to get it done, but the Wolverines have a huge game against the Buckeyes next week and have come one play from losing in each of their last two road games against Minnesota and Indiana.
Provocative preview, especially RE Penn State passing defense; I like it when people write “your” instead of “you’re.” Too many out of place big words is bad, and Penn State is going to win because Michigan is the “better-coached team” but they have not “laid an egg all year.”
ACTUAL PREDICTION
Unlike all the other web wise men (and women), I have a system. It all depends on the M vs. Xavier basketball game: If Michigan wins Michigan will beat Penn State tomorrow. I will figure out the exact score prediction following the basketball game.
Michigan’s D line still has players—Wormley, Hurst, Henry, Jenkins-Stone, Charlton, Godin, and Pallante all played this season before recent injuries. The secondary and the linebackers are all still there, and they are more experienced. Maybe they can turn the D on again. If so, Michigan will win.
Penn State Fans are not convinced… They do not have confidence. James Franklin not a big enough splash?
- http://victorybellrings.com/2015/11/20/penn-state-vs-michigan-prediction-roundtable-2/
- http://www.blackshoediaries.com/2015/11/19/9744838/penn-state-michigan-football-game-preview-senior-day-whiteout-christian-hackenberg-carl-nassib
Heavy also sides with the computer. Michigan is ranked 6th in F+ Ratings, an analytical system that uses a variety of key factors to rank teams, while Penn State is 36th. Michigan is the better team and has faced a more difficult schedule. Expect the Wolverines to take out their frustrations of their narrow victory against Indiana out on Penn State.
Why Michigan will win.
- Hackenberg does not run. He will not have that much time.
- Special teams, field position, red zone conversions.
- Offensive diversity and enough points.
- The defense/PSU lack of explosiveness.
Unknown? Turnovers. Penn State is good at them. If Michigan plays a smart, motivated, relatively turnover-free game they will win.
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